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摩根士丹利:美/日维持结构性看空 美联储会议前很难显著上涨

27 Jul, 2019

美/日维持结构性看空

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)周五(7月26日)发布研究报告指出,美元/日元维持结构性看空,将继续持有该货币对的空头仓位,认为其在接近美联储会议时的任何反弹都将消退。


摩根士丹利分析师称:“美元/日元可能会在美联储会议前获得适度支撑,或将最高触及109.20,但我们倾向于将此时的反弹视为逢高做空机会。如果美联储意外降息50个基点,美元/日元可能会大幅下跌,尤其是市场已经开始消化美联储大规模降息的风险。与此同时,我们发现仓位情况也显示出市场正普遍看空美元/日元。”


该行分析师补充道:“另一个关键事件是日本央行政策会议。我们看到美元/日元下行风险正在攀升,美国经济数据持续走弱,而海外资产的吸引力则在增加。我们相信美元/日元将会在109.20遭遇强劲阻力,而之前低位106.78则是一个重要支撑。”