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US data was better than expected

02 Apr, 2020

US dollar gold rose together

Data and news released yesterday:

The number of ADP employees in the United States fell by 27,000 in March, less than the market expectation.

The ISM manufacturing index in the US fell to 49.1 in March from 50.1 in February, with an expectation of 45. The sharp decline in new orders and production has driven down economic activity, data show.

The manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in March was the lowest since July 2012.

Rosengren: the unemployment rate may be 10% at the end of the second quarter, and there may be two quarters of negative growth in the United States.

Trump will meet with oil companies to discuss industry assistance.

The US House of representatives will negotiate the fourth round of stimulus bill after April 20.

 

Market Volatility:

The US dollar index rose 0.6% to close at 99.59, with a daily high of around 99.79.

The euro fell 0.61% to near 1.0964. At one time, it fell 1.2% to about $1.0903, the third day in a row.

USD/JPY fell 0.34% to 107.17, and hit a new two-week low of 106.92 earlier, during which a large number of buyers bought at 107.25, and the global foreign exchange market returned to the safe haven mode.

The pound fell 0.39% to 1.2371, earlier down 0.7% to 1.2331, and then briefly recovered to the top of flat. Short term account selling before and after the release of the UK manufacturing PMI put pressure on the pound.

The rise of spot gold was still blocked at the US $1,600 level, and the gains were reduced after the US hit a peak of US $1,599.60/ounce.

The trend of US oil and Petronas is divided, with us oil up 3.52% and Petronas down nearly 3%. US President trump will meet with senior executives of large US oil companies to discuss measures to help the industry.

 

CWG future forecast:

There is no significant data released during the Asia Europe period of this trading day. The focus of the market is on the U.S. market. The February trade account of the U.S. together with the number of initial jobless claims of the U.S. this week, coupled with the subsequent release of the monthly rate of factory orders and durable goods orders in the U.S. in February, the market is expected to be more volatile.

Institutional Analysis: according to Canadian Empire business analysis, non-farm terrorism is weaker on Friday from ADP in March. According to the bank, the decline in employment in the United States has just begun. Although it recorded a moderate decline of 27,000, better than the expected 150,000, ADP statistics and payroll statistics were both data before the sharp rise in initial claims for unemployment benefits. It noted that in the past year or more, ADP's initial expectations and private sector employment data are generally higher. Based on a series of fluctuations we may encounter in the next few months, all of them are The gap is likely to keep growing.

 

Financial calendar:

14: 30 Swiss annual CPI rate in March

19: 30 Challenger layoffs in March

20: 30 US February trade account

Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending March 28

Canada February trade account

22:00 U.S. factory order monthly rate in February

Monthly rate of durable goods orders in February in the United States

 

CWG financial knowledge:

U.S. trade account: according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, trade account is the difference between the total value of a country's exports and imports in a specific period of time, reflecting the data of the relationship between the country's imports and exports. If the export is larger than the import, the data is positive, which is usually called trade surplus (surplus); otherwise, it becomes trade deficit (deficit). Trade accounts are sometimes broken down into goods trade accounts and services trade accounts. If the data is better than expected, it will be good for us dollar, otherwise it will be bad for us dollar.

 

CWG Markets, as a fully authorized and regulated trading service provider of FCA, the contents and opinions contained in this article are only general information and do not take your investment objectives, financial situation and investment needs into account. Any reference to historical price fluctuations or price levels is based on our analysis and does not indicate or prove that such fluctuations or price levels are likely to recur in the future. CFD is a complex instrument, and there is a risk of rapid loss due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFD works and whether you are able to take the risk of losing money. If you have any questions, please seek advice from an independent consultant. For more details, please visit www.cwgsvg.com to obtain and refer to the company's risk disclosure summary.