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US dollar and US stocks rose again

31 Mar, 2020

The global market was in relaxing state

Data and news released yesterday:

◆ the US stock market rebounded strongly and the Dow Jones index rose 500 points, or 2.3%. The standard & Poor's 500 index rose nearly 2.6%, while the Nasdaq composite rose nearly 3%.

◆ Trump and Putin reached consensus on the importance of global energy market stability.

◆ Germany's economy is expected to shrink by 5.4% in 2020 due to the impact of the coronavirus, according to the assessment report released by the German Economic Advisory Committee on the 30th, and it is expected to rebound to the bottom in 2021.

◆ the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in Canada has increased significantly, with the average number of people applying for unemployment benefits of 207,000, compared with the average number of 133,000 in the previous seven days, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is increasing day by day.

The WHO says the number of coronavirus in European may be approaching its peak.

◆ oil price fell to an 18 year low, and US oil ETF became an investment trap.

 

Market Volatility:

◆ the U.S. dollar index rose 0.71% to near 99.01. In the past two weeks, the U.S. dollar first recorded its biggest weekly increase since the 2008 financial crisis.

◆ the euro fell 0.83% to near 1.1048, up 4.2% last week.

◆ USD/JPY fell 0.17% to close to 107.76, supported by Japanese companies' repatriation of overseas funds at the end of the fiscal year and sovereign demand.

◆ the pound fell 0.37% to near 1.2414, down 1.1% at one time, the sharp fluctuation of the pound exchange rate made hedging more difficult.

◆ the rise of spot gold continued to be blocked, reaching a maximum of US $1634.21/oz and then turned to decline. Gold continued its horizontal consolidation price trend.

◆ WTI may crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 6.60%, to $20.09/barrel; Brent may crude oil futures fell $2.17, or 8.70%, to $22.76/barrel.

 

CWG future forecast:

This trading day is data intensive, which will directly reflect the impact of the epidemic on the global economy. In early trading, Japan's monthly unemployment rate was announced. In Europe, attention was paid to various economic data released by Britain, France, Germany and the euro zone. In the U.S. market period, economic data were released in the United States and Canada. Countries received the impact of the epidemic, and the data is not expected to be ideal.

 

Institutional Analysis: according to standard bank analysis, the coronavirus has a symmetrical impact on most currency exchange rate materials, except the euro. The coronavirus pandemic, which has brought about the level of foreign exchange fluctuation that has not appeared since the financial crisis, will be a general symmetrical impact, and will eventually make most of the currency exchange rates close to the level before the outbreak, with the exception of the euro. Although it is believed that the US and Europe may fall to 1:1 parity, at this stage, as long as the US dollar financing pressure is still contained, there is limited space for the US dollar to significantly exceed the parity.

 

 

Financial calendar:

07:01 UK March GfK consumer confidence index

07:30 Japan's unemployment rate in February

14: UK fourth quarter GDP quarterly rate

14: 30 annual rate of actual retail sales in Switzerland in February

14: 45 annual CPI rate of France in March

15: 55 unemployment and unemployment rate in Germany

17: 00 Annual CPI rate of euro zone in March

20: 30 monthly GDP rate after January quarter adjustment in Canada

21:45 March Chicago PMI

22:00 consumer confidence index of the American Chamber of Commerce in March

API crude oil inventory for the week from 04:30 the next day to March 27

 

CWG financial knowledge:

Council of America consumer confidence index: the Council of America announced that the consumer confidence index is to assess consumers' confidence in the business environment, employment and personal income. Through thousands of e-mail surveys, the ACSA consumer confidence index has the most extensive consumer sampling. The level of consumer confidence is usually closely related to consumer spending, and this economic event will have a certain impact on the trend of the US dollar. If the data released is higher than expected, it will benefit the US dollar, if the data is lower than expected, it will be negative.

 

CWG Markets, as a fully authorized and regulated trading service provider of FCA, the contents and opinions contained in this article are only general information and do not take your investment objectives, financial situation and investment needs into account. Any reference to historical price fluctuations or price levels is based on our analysis and does not indicate or prove that such fluctuations or price levels are likely to recur in the future. CFD is a complex instrument, and there is a risk of rapid loss due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFD works and whether you are able to take the risk of losing money. If you have any questions, please seek advice from an independent consultant. For more details, please visit www.cwgsvg.com to obtain and refer to the company's risk disclosure summary.