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Financial markets were poor

30 Mar, 2020

US dollar plummeted gold rose

Data and news released yesterday:

The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass a $2 trillion economic stimulus bill, which was approved by both houses of Congress and will enter into force after President Trump signs it.

The Central Bank of Canada urgently cut the interest rate again and cut the overnight benchmark interest rate to 0.25%. Negative interest rates are not considered for the time being.

BBC: British Prime Minister Johnson's coronavirus test is positive.

According to the survey of German Chamber of Commerce and industry, almost one fifth of German enterprises think they are at risk of bankruptcy, more than one quarter of German enterprises expect sales to drop at least 50% this year.

The G20 leaders held a special summit on coping with the epidemic via video; the G20 will launch an economic plan with a total value of US $5 trillion to deal with the negative impact of the epidemic on global society, economy and finance, and support the central banks to take measures to promote financial stability and enhance the liquidity of global markets.

 

Market Volatility:

The US dollar index continued to fall last week, falling by 1.11% to 98.31 from 400 points. The intraday surge dropped by more than 150 points, to a two-week low level. At the same time, it is also approaching the 98 level.

The euro gained relatively limited on Friday. Last week, it rebounded sharply from the low of 1.0635 in the past three years, with the highest attack near 1.1146, up 511 points.

USD/JPY fell 1.5% sharply, and last week closed near 107.94, down 2.70% weekly. The outbreak has worsened again, more negative news has raised investors' concerns, and the safe haven yen is once again favored by funds.

The pound surged more than 2% on Friday and closed at 1.2460, up 7.15% on the whole.

The spot gold rose 1.7% to 1645.02 USD / oz in the past two weeks. It has stabilized above 1,620 USD and the market liquidity has improved.

WTI may crude oil futures fell $1.89, or 7.72%, to $22.60/barrel. Brent may crude oil futures fell $1.05, or 3.83%, to $26.34/barrel.

 

CWG future forecast:

This week's big and small non-farm data will impact the market with initial requests, and intensive data will assess the impact of public health events on the global economy. On the European side, attention will be paid to the speech of European Central Bank Management Committee Holtzman, while European countries will release the March Markit manufacturing PMI. US non-farm data will be released on Friday, Beijing time. Economists have predicted that even the non-farm data in the next few months will be very pessimistic.

Institutional Analysis: Barclays Bank gave the bottom line of GDP forecast for the UK this year, saying that the GDP in 2020 may weaken 1.1% year on year, and any rebound is unlikely to be significant, because the economy is ultimately limited to lasting and potential damage. GBP / USD is forecast to be at 1.16 by the end of the year, 1.15 by September and 1.14 by the end of the year.

 

Financial calendar:

08:00 monetary policy statement released by monetary authority of Singapore

16: 30 UK central bank mortgage approval in February

16: 30 number of BBA home purchase mortgage permits in February in the UK

17: Euro zone economic climate index for March

17: Euro zone industrial prosperity index in March

20: 00 initial value of CPI annual rate in Germany in March

22:00 monthly rate of contracted sales index of finished houses after Rose adjustment in February

 

CWG financial knowledge:

U.S. housing contract sales index: the National Association of Realtors announced that the housing contract sales index is a leading indicator of future housing sales activities in the United States. It can provide more reliable information about the direction of housing market changes than any existing indicator. The housing market is an important factor in the economic development of the United States, which usually has an impact on the dollar. If the published data record high, it will be good for the dollar, if the data record low, it will be bad for the dollar.

 

CWG Markets, as a fully authorized and regulated trading service provider of FCA, the contents and opinions contained in this article are only general information and do not take your investment objectives, financial situation and investment needs into account. Any reference to historical price fluctuations or price levels is based on our analysis and does not indicate or prove that such fluctuations or price levels are likely to recur in the future. CFD is a complex instrument, and there is a risk of rapid loss due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFD works and whether you are able to take the risk of losing money. If you have any questions, please seek advice from an independent consultant. For more details, please visit www.cwgsvg.com to obtain and refer to the company's risk disclosure summary.